The option to defer

When teams win the coin toss in the NFL, they have the option to receive the opening kick off or to kick to the other team first (i.e. defer until the second half).

Who should elect to receive the opening kick:

• Ball control offenses like Miami, Jacksonville. These teams do not play well from behind. They prefer to grind out long drives keep the other team off the field. Best for them to play with a lead.
• Teams with good defenses. Who cares if the other team gets the ball first to start the second half. Let's score now and let our defense takeover the game.
  
• Bad teams like the Chiefs. They need to score and keep the game close. They need to get something going. These teams might be out of the game by halftime. Their best shot is to strike early.
  

Who should defer:

• Teams who are matched against a similar opponent. One more possession in the second half might make the difference.
• Teams with strong passing attacks. Even if they are down a little after the first half, teams with strong passing games are generally built to comeback. They can afford to see how the first half shakes out.
  
• The Dallas Cowboys. The 'Boys drafted a kickoff specialist who can boot the ball into tomorrow. They should use this weapon immediately and force the other team to start on the 20. Game on.
  

Thoughts?

Owning Up

The Dolphins blew the 2 minute drill in last Monday night's nail-biter against the Colts. Forced to burn a crucial timeout, the Dolphins dug themselves a deep hole from which they didn't escape. What's fascinating to me is how people react when their every move is scrutinized and broadcast worldwide in Jerry Jones nose-picking HD.

Dolphins O Coordinator Dan Henning has stepped up and publicly acknowledged that he made a mistake by sending in the wrong play. This may seem small but I believe that honesty and accountability are vital components to creating good organizations, whether they be football teams, corporations, or even families.

Henning did not point out that his offense kept Peyton Manning off the field for a record breaking 45:07 minutes or that Dolphins receiver Ted Ginn Jr. could have won the game if he'd squeezed his hands together at the right time in the end zone.

The Dolphins are doing the right things. They are creative, disciplined, and hard working. Moral victories will become real ones soon.

Thanks GQ

Time fore the annual GQ rant. According to them, "Cardigans aren't just for your grandpa anymore."

Really? That's fresh. What a trend.

Motivation

Brian Dawkins following Denver's Week 1 win:

“I am a blessed man. I am an anointed man. I do what I do and I don’t take it for granted. I love what I do. It is an opportunity for me to go out and have a great time. Just this game of football, people who are going to watch this interview would love to do what I do for a living. People come to the game to have a great time. I go to the games to have a great time. I am not going to allow anything to deter me from that. My preparation is key, my conditioning is key and my belief in the abilities I’ve been blessed with to get the job done is key.”

Oak Town Controversial

If I had a lot of money, I would buy cool clothing. Cars are fun and eating out is nice, but I love wearable graphic art.

Welcome to Fiftyseven-thirtythree, a liberal clothing label featuring images of S.E. Asia, chimps in riot gear, peaceful schoolgirls, and boys kissing boys.

I don't know if this label is socialist, communist, angry, or something else. I don't love all of their work of course, but some of these shirts are sweet. It probably doesn't hurt that their models are gorgeous.

Preseason Brutality

One of the more painful realizations in preseason is that there are guys on the team who will survive roster cuts only to be cut the following day when coaches begin plucking from the waiver wire. Guys on the bubble: You aren't just competing against your teammates, you're also competing against the 750 people about to be cut from all the other teams.

Coming Soon: Gunsight Pass!

I recently went backpacking in Glacier National Park with Jeremy and Zack Lauffenburger. Details and photos coming soon. And thank you, yes those jean shorts ARE sweet. :)

Doom and Gloom: The 2009 Denver Broncos

For the Denver Broncos, 2008 proved to be a season of tantalizing highs and crushing lows. In the offseason, they put together a very solid draft, signing Eddie Royal, Ryan Clady, Ryan Torain, and Peyton Hillis, prompting Head Coach Mike Shanahan to guarantee a playoff berth. For a few weeks, it looked as though Mike would be right. The Broncos steamrolled Oakland, stole a game from San Diego, and out-dueled the Saints. Fans masked concern for the defense by pointing to the absolutely explosive offense captained by gunslinging QB Jay Cutler. But as the season progressed, the Broncos began to show holes. The offense suffered a rash of injuries at running back and the defense turned out to be one of the worst of all times. Even with all this, the Broncos needed only to win one of their last three games to make the playoffs. They of course failed miserably, getting crushed by the San Diego Chargers on national T.V.

This recent offseason has been both drama filled and distressing for Bronco fans. It began with the firing of Head Coach Mike Shanahan and the hiring of young Bill Belichek disciple Josh McDaniels, the man responsible for leading career benchwarming QB Matt Cassell to 11 wins and a lucrative contract. However, that contract was not with the Broncos. This led to the Cutlergate scandal and the unprecedented departure of one of the league’s brightest if most immature star young QBs to the Chicago Bears.

Not content with dismantling the Broncos 2008 offense, in April, McDaniels and company turned in one of the most controversial drafts in team history, eschewing popular first round defensive backs for Georgia RB Knowshon Moreno. This after signing not one, not two, but three running backs before the draft. This first round pick was so unconventional that the Washington Redskins, who drafted immediately after Denver, took literally about 30 seconds to draft Brian Orakpo, the man everyone thought Denver should have taken. I broke down the Broncos draft here, but in short, McDaniels and company picked six out of 10 guys for the offense and failed to address the obvious weakness at defensive line.

This team is imploding. Brandon Marshall’s recent antics coupled with injuries to the first and second string quarterbacks have caused oddsmakers to remove the first Broncos game from their books because no one will bet on the Broncos. Why such skepticism? There is a chance that for week one, this man will be throwing the ball.

So here is my prediction: What’s in store for the 2009 Denver Broncos.

Denver Broncos 2009 Schedule (home games in bold)


1	Sep 13	DEN @ CIN
2	Sep 20	CLE @ DEN
3	Sep 27	DEN @ OAK
4	Oct 04	DAL @ DEN
5	Oct 11	NE @ DEN
6	Oct 19	DEN @ SD
7	Bye
8	Nov 01	DEN @ BAL
9	Nov 09	PIT @ DEN
10	Nov 15	DEN @ WAS
11	Nov 22	SD @ DEN
12	Nov 26	NYG @ DEN
13	Dec 06	DEN @ KC
14	Dec 13	DEN @ IND
15	Dec 20	OAK @ DEN
16	Dec 27	DEN @ PHI
17	Jan 03	KC @ DEN

In a word: pain.

Week 1 - Denver @ Cincinnati – L. A very average team, Cincinnati will be a good litmus test for the boys in blue and orange. The Bengals don’t do anything well but they don’t do anything poorly. I don’t expect the Bengals running attack to get anything going so we’ll find out how much Chad Ocho Cinco and Laveranues Coles have left in the tank. Even if Orton starts, I think he’ll have a difficult time.

Week 2 - Cleveland @ Denver – W. On paper this should be Denver’s easiest game of the season—which is why I think they’ll have their hands full. Historically the Broncos have played way down to their competition. The Browns currently lack a starting QB, any running game, and their 2^nd best receiver just got suspended for drunkenly running over a man. Denver pulls away in the fourth quarter.

Week 3 - Denver @ Oakland – L. The Broncos should beat the Raiders handily. They always should. Yet year in, year out, the two teams end up splitting. With the murderers row of teams upcoming, this has all the makings for a trap game.

Week 4 - Dallas @ Denver – L. The Cowboys are not who we think they are, they’re worse. But Denver’s defensive line will make Tony Romo look like the rockstar Jessica thought he was. Marion Barber seals the deal with 60 yards in the fourth quarter.

Week 5 - New England @ Denver – L. I know Josh McDaniels is already scheming for this game but so is Bill Belichick. The master shows the student a few new tricks and shows the rest of the world just what happens when Tom Brady gets to set up shop in the pocket.

Week 6 - Denver @ San Diego – L. Are there must win games in October? If you’re 1-4 and playing the eventual division winner, there are. Unfortunately, San Diego is better on offense, defense, and special teams. Even Norv Turner won’t give this one away.

Week 8 - Denver @ Baltimore – W. I know people will think I’m crazy for this but Baltimore overperformed last year and Denver has a history of winning at least one game as an underdog. The Ravens receiving core is bad. Their QB is green and their defense is getting long in the tooth. With Brian Dawkins as the 8^th man in the box, Ravens QB Joe Flacco will have to air it out. But if there’s one thing Denver has, it’s a good secondary. Broncos seal it with an interception.

Week 9 - Pittsburgh @ Denver – L. Really what is there to say? The Broncos failed to address their needs in this year’s draft while the Steelers are already drafting with an eye toward 2011. Steelers in a blowout.

Week 10 - Denver @ Washington – L. After the teams Denver has played recently, the Redskins will seem like a college team. Too bad the Broncos aren’t even built to beat a college team. Clinton Portis wears the belt again.

Week 11 - San Diego @ Denver – L. The Chargers know their window to win a Super Bowl is closing. They won’t leave the door open for an upset here.

Week 12 - New York Giants @ Denver – L. As we sit here in August, I actually give the Broncos a fighting chance to keep this one close. Both teams have great offensive lines that are one man deep. A few key injuries can make either Kyle Orton or Eli Manning look very mortal. I expect the Broncos to drop a heartbreaker here.

Week 13 - Denver @ Kansas City – W. Even Elway feared Kansas City, and never more so than in December. These two teams have experienced so much turnover that it’s hard to say how it will go. Kansas City is building for the long term but I’m not sure it shows up just yet. A late field goal wins one for the Broncos.

Week 14 - Denver @ Indianapolis – L. Orton will put up points here but Peyton Manning and Donald Brown show why the Colts always make the playoffs. Indy delivers an absolute beatdown.

Week 15 - Oakland @ Denver – W. There’s a good chance Jeff Garcia starts in Denver for the Raiders, which is bad for the Broncos.

Week 16 - Denver @ Philadelphia – L. Philly has this circled already as a win which means the Broncos have a chance. But McNabb is a surgeon with a bag of new tools. Ruthless efficient Philly football for 60 minutes.

Week 17 - Kansas City @ Denver – W. This should be a game where both teams want to lose in order to get a higher draft pick. However, the Broncos traded this pick away so they’ll actually try to win. Yahoo.

You heard it here: 5-11.