Preseason Brutality

One of the more painful realizations in preseason is that there are guys on the team who will survive roster cuts only to be cut the following day when coaches begin plucking from the waiver wire. Guys on the bubble: You aren't just competing against your teammates, you're also competing against the 750 people about to be cut from all the other teams.

Coming Soon: Gunsight Pass!

I recently went backpacking in Glacier National Park with Jeremy and Zack Lauffenburger. Details and photos coming soon. And thank you, yes those jean shorts ARE sweet. :)

Doom and Gloom: The 2009 Denver Broncos

For the Denver Broncos, 2008 proved to be a season of tantalizing highs and crushing lows. In the offseason, they put together a very solid draft, signing Eddie Royal, Ryan Clady, Ryan Torain, and Peyton Hillis, prompting Head Coach Mike Shanahan to guarantee a playoff berth. For a few weeks, it looked as though Mike would be right. The Broncos steamrolled Oakland, stole a game from San Diego, and out-dueled the Saints. Fans masked concern for the defense by pointing to the absolutely explosive offense captained by gunslinging QB Jay Cutler. But as the season progressed, the Broncos began to show holes. The offense suffered a rash of injuries at running back and the defense turned out to be one of the worst of all times. Even with all this, the Broncos needed only to win one of their last three games to make the playoffs. They of course failed miserably, getting crushed by the San Diego Chargers on national T.V.

This recent offseason has been both drama filled and distressing for Bronco fans. It began with the firing of Head Coach Mike Shanahan and the hiring of young Bill Belichek disciple Josh McDaniels, the man responsible for leading career benchwarming QB Matt Cassell to 11 wins and a lucrative contract. However, that contract was not with the Broncos. This led to the Cutlergate scandal and the unprecedented departure of one of the league’s brightest if most immature star young QBs to the Chicago Bears.

Not content with dismantling the Broncos 2008 offense, in April, McDaniels and company turned in one of the most controversial drafts in team history, eschewing popular first round defensive backs for Georgia RB Knowshon Moreno. This after signing not one, not two, but three running backs before the draft. This first round pick was so unconventional that the Washington Redskins, who drafted immediately after Denver, took literally about 30 seconds to draft Brian Orakpo, the man everyone thought Denver should have taken. I broke down the Broncos draft here, but in short, McDaniels and company picked six out of 10 guys for the offense and failed to address the obvious weakness at defensive line.

This team is imploding. Brandon Marshall’s recent antics coupled with injuries to the first and second string quarterbacks have caused oddsmakers to remove the first Broncos game from their books because no one will bet on the Broncos. Why such skepticism? There is a chance that for week one, this man will be throwing the ball.

So here is my prediction: What’s in store for the 2009 Denver Broncos.

Denver Broncos 2009 Schedule (home games in bold)


1	Sep 13	DEN @ CIN
2	Sep 20	CLE @ DEN
3	Sep 27	DEN @ OAK
4	Oct 04	DAL @ DEN
5	Oct 11	NE @ DEN
6	Oct 19	DEN @ SD
7	Bye
8	Nov 01	DEN @ BAL
9	Nov 09	PIT @ DEN
10	Nov 15	DEN @ WAS
11	Nov 22	SD @ DEN
12	Nov 26	NYG @ DEN
13	Dec 06	DEN @ KC
14	Dec 13	DEN @ IND
15	Dec 20	OAK @ DEN
16	Dec 27	DEN @ PHI
17	Jan 03	KC @ DEN

In a word: pain.

Week 1 - Denver @ Cincinnati – L. A very average team, Cincinnati will be a good litmus test for the boys in blue and orange. The Bengals don’t do anything well but they don’t do anything poorly. I don’t expect the Bengals running attack to get anything going so we’ll find out how much Chad Ocho Cinco and Laveranues Coles have left in the tank. Even if Orton starts, I think he’ll have a difficult time.

Week 2 - Cleveland @ Denver – W. On paper this should be Denver’s easiest game of the season—which is why I think they’ll have their hands full. Historically the Broncos have played way down to their competition. The Browns currently lack a starting QB, any running game, and their 2^nd best receiver just got suspended for drunkenly running over a man. Denver pulls away in the fourth quarter.

Week 3 - Denver @ Oakland – L. The Broncos should beat the Raiders handily. They always should. Yet year in, year out, the two teams end up splitting. With the murderers row of teams upcoming, this has all the makings for a trap game.

Week 4 - Dallas @ Denver – L. The Cowboys are not who we think they are, they’re worse. But Denver’s defensive line will make Tony Romo look like the rockstar Jessica thought he was. Marion Barber seals the deal with 60 yards in the fourth quarter.

Week 5 - New England @ Denver – L. I know Josh McDaniels is already scheming for this game but so is Bill Belichick. The master shows the student a few new tricks and shows the rest of the world just what happens when Tom Brady gets to set up shop in the pocket.

Week 6 - Denver @ San Diego – L. Are there must win games in October? If you’re 1-4 and playing the eventual division winner, there are. Unfortunately, San Diego is better on offense, defense, and special teams. Even Norv Turner won’t give this one away.

Week 8 - Denver @ Baltimore – W. I know people will think I’m crazy for this but Baltimore overperformed last year and Denver has a history of winning at least one game as an underdog. The Ravens receiving core is bad. Their QB is green and their defense is getting long in the tooth. With Brian Dawkins as the 8^th man in the box, Ravens QB Joe Flacco will have to air it out. But if there’s one thing Denver has, it’s a good secondary. Broncos seal it with an interception.

Week 9 - Pittsburgh @ Denver – L. Really what is there to say? The Broncos failed to address their needs in this year’s draft while the Steelers are already drafting with an eye toward 2011. Steelers in a blowout.

Week 10 - Denver @ Washington – L. After the teams Denver has played recently, the Redskins will seem like a college team. Too bad the Broncos aren’t even built to beat a college team. Clinton Portis wears the belt again.

Week 11 - San Diego @ Denver – L. The Chargers know their window to win a Super Bowl is closing. They won’t leave the door open for an upset here.

Week 12 - New York Giants @ Denver – L. As we sit here in August, I actually give the Broncos a fighting chance to keep this one close. Both teams have great offensive lines that are one man deep. A few key injuries can make either Kyle Orton or Eli Manning look very mortal. I expect the Broncos to drop a heartbreaker here.

Week 13 - Denver @ Kansas City – W. Even Elway feared Kansas City, and never more so than in December. These two teams have experienced so much turnover that it’s hard to say how it will go. Kansas City is building for the long term but I’m not sure it shows up just yet. A late field goal wins one for the Broncos.

Week 14 - Denver @ Indianapolis – L. Orton will put up points here but Peyton Manning and Donald Brown show why the Colts always make the playoffs. Indy delivers an absolute beatdown.

Week 15 - Oakland @ Denver – W. There’s a good chance Jeff Garcia starts in Denver for the Raiders, which is bad for the Broncos.

Week 16 - Denver @ Philadelphia – L. Philly has this circled already as a win which means the Broncos have a chance. But McNabb is a surgeon with a bag of new tools. Ruthless efficient Philly football for 60 minutes.

Week 17 - Kansas City @ Denver – W. This should be a game where both teams want to lose in order to get a higher draft pick. However, the Broncos traded this pick away so they’ll actually try to win. Yahoo.

You heard it here: 5-11.

Glacier National Park!

Tomorrow morning I'm headed to Glacier National Park for a 3-day backpacking trip. A few notes from the Glacier Park Service:

• An increasing number of backcountry hikers carry pepper spray as a possible deterrent against aggressive bears.
• You should have a tent with a waterproof floor, rain-fly, and a no-see-um netting, and this tent should be designed to withstand strong winds. Bring plenty of extra stakes and strong cord.
• Insect repellent is highly recommended.
• You can count on your feet getting wet regardless of your boot type, so durability and support should be a prime concern. Many pair of socks are essential.
• Plan to be self sufficient in any emergency. The land is vast and remote, and you cannot count on early help if you have difficulties.

Excerpts from the Glacier Park Bear Guide

Postures

Stationary frontal orientation - If a bear is standing and facing you, it is certainly not being submissive. This is an aggressive position and may signal a charge. It is likely waiting for you to withdraw.

Vocalizations

Huffing - When a bear is tense, it may forcibly exhale a series of several sharp, rasping huffs. A mother may also huff in order to gain the attention of her young.

Woof - A startled bear may emit a single sharp exhale that lakes the harsh quality of a huff. If her cubs woof, a mother will immediately become alert to the situation.

Jaw-Popping - Females with young often emit a throaty popping sound, apparently to beckon their cubs when danger is sensed. A mother vocalizing in this manner should be considered nervous and extremely stressed. Bears other than sows also jaw-pop.

Growl, snarl, roar - Clear indication of intolerance.

Other Indicators

Yawning - Indicates tension. This behavior may results from the close proximity of another bear or human presence.

Excessive Salivation - A clear sign of tension, salivation may appear as white foam around the bear's mouth.

Charge - The vast majority of charges are ones in which the bear stops before making contact. The intensity of the charge or associated vocalizations may vary, but it is distinct in that it is an aggressive or defensive act clearly directed at another bear or human. Bears may charge immediately, as a sow fearing for her cubs, or may emit stressed or erratic behavior before charging.

There is no guaranteed lifesaving method of reacting to an aggressive bear. Some behavior patterns have proven more successful in close encounters than others. Take a calm assured posture. A firm voice and gradual departure are better than a retreat in panic. Include the nature of your surroundings in your reaction.

As a last resort, lie face down, protect your neck with your hands and arms, and don't move. This requires considerable courage, but resistance would be futile. Numerous incidents exist where a bear has sniffed and departed without serious injury.

My life is a Grey's Anatomy Soundtrack

What's to say? These songs are perfect for a rainy summer night. Really any summer night.

The Delgados - I Fought the Angels

Marion Black - Who Knows

Blue-Eyed Son - Step Away From the Cliff

of ghosts and other mythical figures

Recently someone showed me an image of Sisyphus and I recalled identifying so much with this figure that, a few years ago, it was almost he who ended up spending eternity rolling his rock up my ribs rather than the Icarus Changed who flies there now.

Early Sunday morning, I found myself in a relatively vivid dream. I was wandering down narrow, brick-lined campus corridors, showing Walker some school. But I was lost. I'd poke my head into a classroom and see people absorbed in their lives and their studies. In one small gymnasium, my friend Nappy was strenuously working out (he actually does this) in preparation for an upcoming wrestling tournament (he doesn't actually do this). In another room, my old college roommate Tom O'Brien was now student teaching en route to a tenured spot. As for me, I had no clue where I was. I eventually apologized to Walker and told him he'd be better off finding his own way.

I don't feel lost here in the real world but it feels like I'm chafing under familiar yokes--entering old feedback loops. I've felt more mortal, less in control, and more dazed than I'd like to be. I find myself looking for role models and then justifying failures that they would have overcome. The Icarus tattoo didn't make me stronger, just more aware of when I stumble. Perhaps even they are steps.

I'm the ghost of summer present. I'm looking in on everyone but I'm never there. Recently I flipped through my friend's camera. On it were various friends goofing around and hanging out at various parties. I counted the occasions and realized that through five separate nights I hadn't been to any of them. It made me question my priorities. It made me wonder what I've been doing.

Preseason Thursday picks

Eagles -3 at Colts.

Colts don't care at all about preseason (3-16), they care about protecting Manning.

I also like under 36.5 but I like that less.

Opportunities Siezed and lost

I really shouldn't be writing this now because the list of people who want something from me today is lengthening at a disturbing rate. Quickly, shall we?

So Brett Favre will start for the Vikings. Goody. That leaves only two spots for three arms: Tarvaris Jackson, Sage Rosenfels, and John David Booty.

So who is the odd man out? JDB is cheap, and has never had a chance to show his stuff. The Vikings are likely to keep him and let him develop. Sage just signed for $3 Million guaranteed so I'm guessing the Vikes would like him to earn a little of that cash. Tarvaris on the other hand, had and lost the starting job twice for the Vikings. He at times is the goat of the NFL. But here's what really matters:

Before all this Brett business began, Tarvaris and Sage were supposedly neck and neck in the race for starter. Coach Childress decided that Sage would start the first preseason game and that Tarvaris would start the second. Then they'd both be appraised. Sage played extremely well in game 1 but the coach stuck to his word that he'd decide after game 2.

Then Brett crashed the party (late as always) and must now start preseason game 2. So... Sage looked amazing and thanks to Brett, Tarvaris won't ge his shot. It's possible that T will get some reps in Friday's game but they won't be with the first team offense so he'll never get to show what might have been. My guess is he'll be traded or cut within the week.

If Brett had decided to play for the Vikings before they signed Sage to a fatty contract, Tarvaris would still have a job. Then again, if he hadn't blown it against the Eagles last year he'd probably still have a job too. Sports: the original and still the best reality TV.

Brett Favre is not insane

I have shied away from most of the Michael Vick and Brett Favre media frenzies because the sporting world is so saturated with all of that. I was literally doubting Favre's sanity after he voluntarily went through arm surgery and then walked away from millions of dollars and a juicy job with the playoff contending Minnesota Vikings. Now NFL.com is reporting that Favre has inked a one year deal with the Vikings to play for them this season. Ok this proves he's not insane.

But at some point, Farve's habitual decision to wait until the midnight hour has to come under scrutiny. The phrase "Give our team the best chance to win" is as hackneyed as any in sports but it's extremely appropriate in this conversation. Is Favre the best QB the Vikings have? Technically yes but with such little time to prepare, he is hurting this team.

Brett, people always talk about you as a warrior, but the enlistment period started a long time ago. Get thee to camp, on the double!

Todays picks:

Broncos/Niners over 34

Preseason Thursday picks

Skins +3 over Ravens

Pats +3 over Eagles

Cards/Steelers under 33

Raiders -2 over Cowboys

under 34

Torain Train Leaves Denver

NFL.com is reporting that the Denver Broncos have cut oft-injured 2nd year running back Ryan Torain. With so many RB signings this off-season, he appeared to be a long shot to make the team. A sprained knee last week in practice derailed "The Train" yet again and appears to have sealed his fate.

This is a huge blow for Torain and bronco fans. When he was on the field, this kid ran extremely hard. I know he has a future in the league somewhere. I also think the Broncos staff is making a mistake here. Torain should be moved to the Physically Unable to Perform (PUP) List, which would allow him to come back after week 6. This is what Torain did last year and he single handedly won us a game in Cleveland. As the Broncos discovered last year, you never know when you will desperately need a good running back. My hope is that he clears waivers and somehow ends up on the Broncos practice squad. Pretty unlikely though.

Talent is a dirty dirty word. Production is what's needed on the gridiron and elsewhere.